Policy Dividend Includes Liquidity to Support Technology Growth
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Original title: The strong style of technological growth is expected to continue □ Reporter Zhou Lulu On February 17, the three major A-share indexes rose across the board, the military sector led the rise, technology stocks broke out, and the GEM continued to hit a new high.
At the same time, there was a substantial net inflow of northbound funds.
Analysts believe that the three major A-share indexes have rebounded since the first day of the market’s fall after the Spring Festival. The GEM Index has performed particularly well, even taking the lead in regaining its lost ground, and has set new closing highs in more than three years.
The new rules for refinancing have been implemented, policy dividends have pushed the market trend upwards, and the upward space for technology stock predictions has been further opened. The strong growth of technology is expected to continue, and at the same time, it will help A-share “technology bulls” to achieve stability and achieve long-term progress.
The GEM made a strong attack on the 17th. The three major A-share indexes opened higher and higher, and the industry and concept sectors became popular across the board.
Wind data show that as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.
28% at 2983.
62 points; SZSE Component Index rose 2.
98% reported 11241.
50 points; GEM Index rose 3.
72% reported at 2146.
At 18 o’clock, it continued to set a new closing high in more than three years since December 2016.
Shanghai market turnover was 3670.
1.4 billion yuan, Shenzhen’s turnover was 5701.
8.9 billion yuan.
As for the industry sector, 28 industries in Shenwan ‘s Tier 1 sector have grown across the board, and the defense industry sector has increased by 6.
The 35% increase led the rise; the technology-related sectors broke out in general, and the communications, electronics, and computer sectors rose by 5 respectively.
51%, 淡水桑拿网 4.
The increase rate was 96%, which was the second to fourth place in the ranking of Shenwan’s first-level industry sector. The real estate industry, which had the smallest increase, increased by zero.
The Wind concept plate was red across the board, with the largest aircraft, aircraft carrier, and glyphosate concept plates rising the most, with an average increase of more than 7%; the smallest increase in the blood products concept plate rose by 0.
While the market is rising strongly, there is a substantial net inflow of northbound funds.
According to Wind data, as of the closing of the A-share market on February 17, Northbound funds had a net inflow of 53 throughout the day.
6.3 billion yuan, of which, the net inflow of funds from the Shanghai Stock Connect was 32.
2.0 billion 北京夜网 yuan, the net inflow of funds from Shenzhen Stock Connect 21.
6.1 billion yuan.
At this point, since the opening of the new year, northbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of nearly 40 billion yuan.
Dual benefits boost Analysts believe that behind the three major indexes joining hands on February 17, the dual benefits of the new rules of refinancing and the reduction of MLF bidding interest rates have been promoted.
On February 14, the CSRC issued the revised “Administrative Measures for the Issuance of Securities by Listed Companies”, the “Administrative Measures for the Issuance of Securities by GEM Listed Companies”, and the “Implementation Rules for Listed Companies’ Non-public Issuance of Shares” (collectively referred to as “the new rules for refinancing”), The adjustment of some terms of the refinancing system mainly includes three aspects: first, streamlining issuance conditions and broadening the coverage of GEM refinancing services; second, optimizing non-public institutional arrangements to support listed companies to date strategic investors; third, appropriately extendingThe validity period of the approval document is convenient for listed companies to choose the issuance window.
Analysts said that the new rules on refinancing will expand the coverage of refinancing of listed companies and increase the activity of the short-term market. The pre-growth style of pre-growth will continue. TMT, pharmaceutical biology and other early-stage research and development are committed to the direct benefit of large enterprises.
The Founder Securities (rights) strategy team believes that the new regulations on refinancing are expected to grow technology-based enterprises to ease financing difficulties, expensive financing, and it is more favorable to obtain cheap and appropriate financing support, and this support is significantly better than other companies.
The new rules for refinancing will benefit brokers in the short term and growth in the long term.
In the meantime, following the 7-day period in early February, the 14-day extended reverse repo operation rate was reduced by 10 basis points.
Then, the bidding interest rate for the new MLF operation in the early transition on February 17 was also reduced by 10 basis points.
Analysts said that the initial period often coincided with the peak of credit injection. At this time, the MLF’s bidding interest rate was lowered, and the boots led to the decline in loan interest rates, which had positive significance for reducing costs and steady growth.
The CITIC Securities fixed income research team believes that the market ‘s recent adjustments to the benchmark interest rate for deposits have been improved and discussed. In the short term, it is based on the impact of hedging outbreaks. In the medium and long term, it is based on the fact that the cost of bank debt has increased and interest rates have been reduced for a long time.The benchmark interest rate on deposits is directly and directly effective in advancing the downlink of bank credit costs.
Although it is still worth discussing whether to adjust the benchmark interest rate for deposits, the general trend that guides the bank’s debt cost down may have been transformed, and this process is good for both stock and debt.
The technology market is expected to continue to show a clear structural market since February, and technology stocks have become a highlight of this structural market.
With the implementation of new refinancing regulations, in the context of abundant liquidity, expansion brokers expect that the structural market triggered by the technology sector will promote continuity.
Haitong Securities said that the bull market pattern will remain the same before 2020, but the pace has changed. The market still needs time to digest the impact of the new crown pneumonia on short-term fundamentals, and it requires patience while maintaining consensus.
At present, the market is still in a consolidation phase, with a pattern similar to the beginning of August to early December 2019.
In the context of loose liquidity, the market will have a structural market. This round of structural market will be dominated by technology.
Ping An Securities expects that A shares will continue to be driven by policy dividends, and the upward space for technology stocks is estimated to be opened.
The technological market led by technology will continue, and currently it is more optimistic about emerging industries that benefit the most, such as the new energy automobile industry chain, 5G industry chain, cloud computing industry chain, biomedicine industry, electronics industry, media industry, etc .; at the inflection point of the epidemicAfter the arrival, focus on the industrial cycle sector to be repaired.
The research team of the China National Securities Strategy pointed out that, based on history, the A-share market in February has the typical characteristics of “spring agitation”, and it is mainly based on the style of technology stocks.
The team reviewed (2009-2019) February in the 11 years. In addition to the 2016 A-share February, the other years of February received a comprehensive or structural improvement; in terms of market style, historicallyIn February, the A-share market was dominated by the TM technology growth market.
In terms of investment strategy, the team stated that at the current point in time, it still maintains the view that “counter-cyclical policies will restore investor pessimism, and technology is the main line of deployment.”
Focus on grasping the two main investment lines: First, dig deep into the main line of US stocks mapping and configuration in emerging industries, such as “Apple industry chain, electric vehicle industry chain, cloud games, safe and controllable”; second, benefit from the transformation of the primary and secondary marketsActive brokerage sector.
The CITIC Securities strategy team said that the current trend of the incidence of the disease is positively changing, and the scale of the stable economic goals is constantly increasing. It is expected that there will be more relays in the future including currency, finance, short-term unconventional policies, and capital market reforms.
Resumption of work this week has entered a critical verification period, and the slow recovery can be expected with the full implementation of policies.
It is expected that enterprises will resume work one after another, and the expected economic repair will come to an end. Incremental allocation of funds to find “depressions” will repeat the relay with momentum funds.
Driven by policies and incremental liquidity, the market still has upward momentum.
Technology is still the first-line main line, and adjustment is the allocation opportunity.
From the perspective of risk-benefit ratio, the focus is on the rotation opportunities of securities firms, automobiles, real estate, upstream industrial products, building materials and banks.