Goldwind Technology (002202): Profit turning point has reached the boom is expected to continue

Goldwind Technology (002202): Profit turning point has reached the boom is expected to continue
Core point of view After reducing investment income, single quarter results have achieved positive growth. The company released the third quarter report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 247 in the reporting period.350,000 yuan, an increase of 39% in ten years, net profit attributable to mother 15.91 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 34%.Among them, net profit attributable to mothers was achieved in the third quarter.US $ 0.6 billion, a 54% decline over the 杭州桑拿 year, primarily due to the reporting of zero previous investment income.24 ppm, a decrease of 4 per year.950,000 yuan, if the investment income is deducted, the net profit attributable to the mother will be achieved in a single quarter.8.2 billion, previously + 3%.  The sales volume of wind turbines is running at a high level, and there are ample orders in hand. The boom is expected to continue. The company’s performance demonstration materials show that on January 9, 19, domestic wind power was open for tender.9GW, +108 per year.5%.  As of the end of the third quarter of 19, the company’s external sales capacity.245MW, total external orders in hand 22.8GW, + 25% per year, continuously refreshing historical records.Among them, a total of 15 signed contracts have pending orders.6GW, + 20% per year.According to the National 杭州夜网论坛 Energy Administration, the abandonment rate in the first half of 19 was 4.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 4 percentage points. The improvement of wind curtailment and restriction of wind power has led to the increase of wind power operators’ power generation and installation power, and the industry’s recovery has continued.  Tender prices rebounded and sales gross profit margin rebounded. According to the company’s performance presentation materials, the average bid price of various departments has continued to rise since 19 years, and the increase has continued to expand.  September 19, 2.The average bid price of 5MW-class units was 3898 yuan / kilowatt, an increase of 17% from the low point of August last year.Third quarter of 19, 3.The average bid prices of 0MW-class units were above 3700 yuan, reaching 3900 yuan / kw in September.The company’s third-quarter sales gross margin was 19.12%, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.17 pct, the profit low has passed, and subsequent results are expected to continue to pick up.  The 19-21 results were 0.69 yuan / share, 1 yuan / share, 1.22 yuan / share We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 2019-2021 will be 29.28, 42.11, 51.44 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.69/1.00/1.22 yuan / share, the closing price of A shares on October 25 corresponding to PE were 17 respectively.92X / 12.46X / 10.20X, Hong Kong dollar against US dollar 0.Based on the exchange rate of 9033, the closing prices of Hong Kong stocks correspond to PE of 11.85X / 8.24X / 6.74X.The company is a domestic fan leader, giving the company A shares, 16X estimates of 2020 performance of H shares, 11X estimates, A shares reasonable value of 16 yuan / share, H shares reasonable value of 12.14 construction / share, continue to give the company a “buy” rating on H shares.  Risk reminder: the supplementary installed capacity is less than expected, the wind power operation business develops less than expected, the price of raw materials rises, and the risk of wind turbine price changes.